Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
